Pixar topped the box office last year with the blockbuster success of Inside Out 2, but it doesn’t look like the animation studio will be leading the charts this summer. Pixar’s latest film, Elio, is estimated to have one of the studio’s lowest opening weekends in its storied history. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Elio is projected to earn just $30 million domestically in its first three days. That figure is in the same ballpark as Pixar’s Elemental, which debuted with $29.6 million domestically a couple of years ago. Elemental has Pixar’s lowest traditional three-day opening of all time (Toy Story earned $29.1 million over its first Friday-Sunday, but that figure is skewed since it opened over Thanksgiving. It earned $39 million in the five-day holiday frame).
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Elio is not expected to best the live-action How to Train Your Dragon remake. After setting a new franchise record in its debut, How to Train Your Dragon is projected to gross $40 million over its second weekend. Elio may not even be able to top 28 Years Later; some tracking data has the horror sequel set to open in the $40-45 million range. More conservative estimates peg it for $28 million or $30 million.
The latest original film from Pixar, Elio follows the titular character, a young boy who wishes he could be abducted by aliens. It was heavily influenced by classic works such as E.T. – the Extra-Terrestrial, exploring themes such as loneliness and grief through a poignant sci-fi story. The film revolves around the unlikely friendship that forms between Elio and Glordon, an alien Elio meets on his adventure.
Since Pixar returned to traditional theatrical releases following the COVID-19 pandemic, their box office results have been mixed. Lightyear was a rare Pixar misfire, earning just $226.4 million worldwide. Elemental got off to the aforementioned slow start, though rebounded to finish with $496.4 million globally. Inside Out 2 marked a real return to form for Pixar, becoming 2024’s highest-grossing title with $1.6 billion.
Historically, Pixar is a studio that has been able to turn any original concept into a blockbuster hit, but their films aren’t as much of a draw as they used to be. It’s telling that Disney moved Elio to avoid a direct showdown with How to Train Your Dragon. The idea behind that shift was that Elio could be in a better place to succeed, but it still has an uphill climb given how well How to Train Your Dragon has performed. This summer has also seen the release of the blockbuster Lilo & Stitch live-action remake, which is en route to crossing $1 billion worldwide. There just isn’t much demand for another family-friendly offering at the box office right now. Elio is facing stiff competition.
Hopefully, Elio is able to have the same fate as Elemental and become a modest success when it’s all said and done. Pixar has some sequels on its upcoming slate (Toy Story 5, Incredibles 3), but it also has other original titles in the works, such as next year’s Hoppers and the recently announced Gatto. It’s important for Pixar’s original films to have lucrative theatrical runs so more can be made down the line.
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